MARYLEBONE — This year is a big year of change. In technology, in the world economy, the world of sport, even in the way all our countries are run.  There are elections in America, France, India…

What is more significant in a country than a change of government?

And that’s what is promised in India, Malaysia, Taiwan, Serbia,  Kuwait, El Salvador, The Gambia, Armenia, Algeria, Madagascar, Libya, Mongolia, Mexico, Cameroon, Kenya, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Belarus, Ukraine, Ghana, Angola, Bhutan, Guinea, Lesotho, Zimbabwe and Togo.

New presidents in Yemen, Senegal, Mali, Russia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Albania, France, Kenya, Turkey, the United States of America, Venezuela, Sierra Leone, Egypt, Kosovo and Zimbabwe.  Yes, Zimbabwe.

We know that the United States presidential election of 2012 is to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. It will be the 57th presidential election.  And it will get a lot of attention.

But how about the world’s largest democracy?

Yes.  That’s India.  How about that one?

Or the big red splotch above?  Russia.

That’s important too.

There are other changes coming too.  Some, we seem to know for sure:

• Gold prices will keep going up.  And hit $2,000 and ounce in 2012, they say.
• The Internet is going to change.  A new IP address protocol will mean that companies may start building two sites for a doubled up Internet — the old one, and the new one.
• We’ll all be talking about faster, slimmer smart phones and The Cloud.  If you don’t know about either, now is the time to do some research.
• Plus many more things you may want to share?

This time next year things will be very different.

I promise.

Businesses will fail.  Some will be dominant that you haven’t even heard of.  Yours will merge, divest, make a 90 degree turn, or implement similar significant changes.

So, what are you doing about it?

Well it is a topic that is quite dear to our hearts at Able and How.  We are launching our Able and How Change Index this year.  And our change management work the world over continues at a pace.

We will be keeping an eye on business, political and social trends this year.  And keeping you up to date with the Able and How Change List (look for it soon in our News section).

Change is good.

Get into it with us.

/df

P.S. And, by the way, NASA assures us that the world is not going to end.  After many years of fielding wild calls, they were forced to put up this website.

EARL’S COURT — Not sure how I missed this one.  But The Independent has been running a investigative series on lobbyists.  And they’ve chosen one of the biggest and most respected firms to ‘expose’.

In summary, some journalists pretended to be wealthy potential clients from a large foreign country and they recorded the communications professionals bragging about things they shouldn’t have been bragging about.

It’s pretty white-knuckle stuff.  It doesn’t look good in print.

But…

You can easily see where it comes from on both sides.

NEWSPAPERS – Have been the centre of attention from politicians and communications professionals for months over phone hacking and other unsavoury practices.  They probably feel betrayed.  Some columnists are already revelling in the chance to someone else “dirty” and “seedy”.

LOBBYISTS – See themselves as great facilitators, bringing people and politicians together.  And helping the democratic process. They are well paid and unregulated. But perform and important service.

The impact that journalists and a story like this can have can be frightening.  (Although few would argue that journalists themselves can coordinate and wielded it with any precision.)

Furthermore, yes, the lobbyists in question look pretty silly, and their contacts are knocking each other over to get out of their way.  And even Buckingham Palace has launched a stinging (oh!) rebuke.  But what business conversation wouldn’t look silly on paper?  Would the Boardroom and kitchen discussions of any average Briton not be surprising and alarming to many people who read them?

It makes me think of the amateur sting operations in secondary school that caught Harris admitting he’s stolen someone’s can of Coke.

SELF IMOLATION
However the real sport in this story may be elsewhere.

It’s interesting to see some of the Dons of the communication agency businesses lining up to betray each other.

It’s mild at the moment, questioning the accuracy of the other CEO.  Filing toothless complaints with gummy bodies.  Or suggesting that exaggeration is not healthy.  But some of these fellows are pretty tough.  The backroom brawls of the past — though generally unreported — are legendary.  When communication bosses take each other on, it can get messy.

I recommend standing back.  And maybe getting some popcorn.

/df

PICADILLY CIRCUS — Looks like the sun might actually come up in London today.  That’s a relief.  And one of my biggest concerns.  Yesterday was dark and I can’t handle that.

So, how lucky am I?  That trivial issues like that concern me?

Yesterday umpteen decisions were made that affect all of our lives and futures.  Not just in London, New York and Beijing.  But in Rome and Athens.  In Geneva and Berlin and Paris.  And in Damascus and Doha. And…

Open the paper and have a look through.  There are an amazing amount of fundamental, big decisions being made by people in places all around the world.

Last Monday Chancellor Merkel said she thinks we’re in the biggest global crisis since 1945.

And she and a group of other diverse, independent leaders, are trying to make sense of the whole thing.  New leaders are being sworn in.  Senior financial gurus are being tapped up.

And big decisions are being made.

In recent years here in the UK a chorus goes up of people saying: easiest job in the world! Paid for nothing! Crooked! Useless!

And today they are doing more than any of us to save our collective backsides.  That’s what leadership is — and probably what we need.  It may even be more than we deserve.

/df

DOHA, QATAR — We’re working on four different ‘transformation programmes’ at the moment. Combined they are on three continents, in over 30 countries.

You would think that would provide some shocking contrasts.  But it does something quite different. It shows startling similarities.

Everything has superficial differences: language, geography, industry, structure…

Yes, those can seem superficial.

The issues in big business transformation generally fall into two buckets: human and process.

Human
When I worked in the airline industry we used to talk about “human factors in aviation”, and I thought that was very funny.  In that, without humans we would not need commercial aviation at all… so humans were a pretty key ingredient.

Transformations can be seen the same way.  Strategy teams and professional project managers can seem quite content to act as if humans are not involved.

And how many businesses exist without ‘human factors’?

Coordinating, informing, involving, managing, aligning, working with and working around humans is one of the hardest parts of any transformation.

Ask anyone with the scars of a big change programme, successful or not, and they’ll say communication and people are the two most under-appreciated areas.

Process
Businesses need a sense of direction.  Even restaurants must know what is important (filling tables) and what to do to try to fill more.

However most large businesses are more complex than that.  With function, regions, business units and many horizontal layers of people influencing or directing each others’ work.

To create and sustain a sense of direction you need processes.

There is no one set of words or no single way of talking to people.  You cannot expect a data specialist to need the same information as an assembly line worker.

In order to be clear on what you are saying, to create a core of content and to move and support the transformation you need to have a plan… several plans often… and many processes to follow to see that you are consistent, coordinated and coherent across all of your business.

And then you need to sustain that over time.

Easy. Right.

Same, same, not always different.

/df

BAHRAIN — This is my first time in Bahrain.  That leaves only really Oman in the area that I haven’t been to / worked in.

United Arab Emirates?
√ Check
Saudi Arabia?
√ Check
Kuwait?
√ Check
Qatar?
√ Check

It’s a part of the world that many people can’t (or choose not to) understand.

In the last three weeks I have flown over it 5 times.  Three of those times I have flown over Iraq.

Well, it’s on the way.

The other two times we diverted.  And flew over Syria instead.

But although areas of conflict may be the image and abiding sense that many people have of the Arab Gulf states, it’s not representative.  (No more than when I was a boy living in London and people always thought I’d be caught up in IRA bombs.)

‘The region’, as locals call it, is very diverse and very active in sport, culture and business.  The region is quietly taking on the world.

And that’s not a bad thing.

Change is good.  And planning and communicating change in this region is important.

The oil and natural gas revenues have allowed visionary leaders to invest heavily in construction and in businesses.  The foreign investment is well documented — both successes and failures.  What is less well documented is the local investment.  It’s immense.

And as a result the region is re-writing business laws.  Some of the smartest people working in business anywhere are working here.

It’s something to see.  Long may it last.

/df

HYDE PARK CORNER — I had a run of texts from a politically obsessed British friend last week. “Have you heard the latest joke about Chris Christie?”

I hadn’t. In fact I hadn’t even heard of Chris Christie.  I was still catching up on the impossible rise and fall of Rick Perry (who I also hadn’t heard of a few months ago.)

So, yes, we’re talking about the US Presidential race.  And Mr Christie, as I have just started to find out, is the current Governor of New Jersey.  Furthermore, it seems that for a few hours last week he was also going to be “the next President of the United States.”

It’s not hard to see why he backed away, even after backing away before.

In many respects you could argue that business is much more forgiving than politics.  Corporate leaders don’t have to submit themselves and their families to the kind of attention and ridicule that politicians do.

However, on the other hand, leaders in business have to appeal to more demographics than politicians.  They have to be leaders of divisions, countries, hierarchies and Boards. 

Being religious might be a requirement for the US Presidency.  But it’s a detriment to a business career.  Leaders of industry need to be able to appeal to people of every background, so long as they can hold a job.

Similarly Presidential candidates have to submit to comments and sniping about everything from their weight to their daughters.  While business leaders may be able to keep their peccadilloes hidden, they also don’t have staff at their disposal to burnish their image.

As Chris Christie found out, leadership comes with it’s challenges that have little to do with the job.

Some days you have to wonder, who’d want to do it?

/df

PICCADILLY — I’ve been scanning the ‘famous birthdays today’ section of the paper for a few weeks.  Looking at the ages of those who make the list.  And — maybe it’s just me — but one decade seems to be noticeably absent.

Mine.

I didn’t want to turn 40.  But that was 5 years ago, so you think I’d be used to it by now.

Maybe I can’t handle change.

Why are so few people my age recognisable?  Those who do make the paper seem to have ‘former’ in front of their profession (footballer, tennis player) or should have ‘former’ in front (pop star, child actor).  While those who have achieved anything through a more traditional path (study, start work, get promoted) are significantly older.

What has happened to those of us who:

• are old enough to think Serena Williams is disgraceful, but McEnroe is cool
• used to be lazy boys but now act more like picky old men
• have enough pride to tell the gym instructor “I used to be in good shape” and expect to be taken seriously
• find Nirvana’s music derivative
• consider “a good year” one in which everyone got a Christmas present AND the tax bill got paid

Ah.  Maybe that’s it. This is the pause between ambition and arrogance.  The grind.

Five more years.

/df

SW LONDON — “Is that what the kids are calling it these days?”

That used to be my stock answer to things I didn’t understand. I thought of it as a knowing wink to the way that old people talk. But as my own age has been rising faster recently than East Coast temperatures, it has become less funny and more fact.

And there’s an issue with people in business staying relevant.  I take that bit seriously.  And there’s almost nothing that isn’t relevant.

So this week I set out to work my way entirely through my children’s Harry Potter film collection.  There are 7… plus one in the theatre.  If I can get through them all then I’ll go see number 7.5 in the cinema.

Why?

I’ve never been good at science fiction.  I couldn’t read JRR Tolkien or even CS Lewis.  I wish I could have, but no.

However, in Britain, H. Potter is not only a major export, it has employed all our great actors, boosted boarding school enrolments and driven tourists to run into walls at train stations.

That’s something that cannot be ignored.

Problem is I am three nights in and not yet finished Harry Potter 1.

It could be a long week.

/df

MY HOUSE — I come from a family of journalists.  And I think that’s a great thing.

Naturally curious.  Opinionated.  Excellent at explaining complex things.  Able to bring the world the news it needs.

My grand-uncle help set up the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.  My dad won awards for his work as a foreign correspondent.  There’s a story that one of my rellies loaned a dis-credited Lord some cash to buy his first newspaper.  But I’m not sure that’s true.

When I was a boy we were surrounded by mighty upright typewriters, coffee and politicians.  We were taught to ask about what UNESCO did, who Marshall Tito was, and what the heck the Marshall Plan was all about.

I loved it.

Today I still have great friends in the Fourth Estate and I will walk the extra 100 yards to see all the morning’s paper laid out, like a row of fresh painting each morning in my struggling newsagent’s shop.  Each screaming something slightly different.

This city I live in feels like home, in part, because we are sunk, knee-deep in the tradition of the daily written word.

A great thing too.

So the troubles of News International ought to be more troubling to me than they are.

But they’re not.  I love newspapers for the things they teach me that I don’t know.  In my world newspapers cover news.  They don’t create it.

The whole issue with newspapers and journalists today is a sorry, sad state of affairs. No one can come out of it smelling good in any way.

Today’s ridiculous stack of Sunday papers in the UK show only bitterness and cynicism.  The tabloids have nothing on the troubles at News Corporation on their front pages.  And we think it’s something about casting the first stone…

And the few broadsheets are covering the Murdochs with way too much glee …

The problem is that we have got to the point in London that there are not many papers that are worth reading.  The Sunday Times today… while carrying a full-page ad apologising… carries two cover stories attacking News International’s enemies (an ex-PM and the entire London Police Force).

It’s just not right.  Newspapers are conduits of information.  We risk losing more in the UK and I put it down to proprietors who have forgotten what business they are in and journalists who have become too cynical to ask.

We’re used to seeing industries in transition.  This one is in for a big one.

I worry that it’s more likely to move towards extinction than improvement.

/df

LONDON — It’s fair to say that people who are deeply suspicious of… everything… have had a banner week.

• The President of the United States of America released his birth certificate.  Why?
• Friday’s Royal Wedding was staged to get a FIFA vote for a UK World Cup. Obviously.
• OBL wasn’t really killed. Not this week, anyway.

And you can have fun with other stats too:

• Only 40% of Americans believe in evolution.
• 88% accept alternative medicine.
• Over 40 million people bought Rick Astley records.

Who ARE these people?! you might ask. 

The world’s gone mad.  And I wouldn’t argue with you.

But at work it seems that all bets are off.

• The top executives lie awake at night thinking about how to make your life hell.
• Someone is making a killing in this business (and it’s not me.)
• My boss is an egoist, got promoted for being flexible, likes to hurt people, steals all my good ideas.
• If the world were just, I would be the CEO.
• They’re reading my email.
• They’re counting the biscuits.
• They won’t offer us fruit because they want us to get scurvy.
• ‘They’ are people I don’t know… but boy are they powerful.

Time and experience tends to suggest that there is no ‘they’. 

Sometimes you find that out by being invited to the secret management meetings.  Sometimes it’s when the boss confesses about what really keeps her up at night… and it’s a fear of seagulls.

Occasionally it’s that crushing realisation that maybe the other guy actually got there by working harder than you.

That’s the worst.

But look at it this way: At least you never bought a Rick Astley single.

/df

P.S. You what?